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张勤. 知识表达和推理的动态不确定因果图(Ⅰ):离散DAG情况[J]. 计算机科学技术学报, 2012, 27(1): 1-23. DOI: 10.1007/s11390-012-1202-7
引用本文: 张勤. 知识表达和推理的动态不确定因果图(Ⅰ):离散DAG情况[J]. 计算机科学技术学报, 2012, 27(1): 1-23. DOI: 10.1007/s11390-012-1202-7
Qin Zhang. Dynamic Uncertain Causality Graph for Knowledge Representation and Reasoning: Discrete DAG Cases[J]. Journal of Computer Science and Technology, 2012, 27(1): 1-23. DOI: 10.1007/s11390-012-1202-7
Citation: Qin Zhang. Dynamic Uncertain Causality Graph for Knowledge Representation and Reasoning: Discrete DAG Cases[J]. Journal of Computer Science and Technology, 2012, 27(1): 1-23. DOI: 10.1007/s11390-012-1202-7

知识表达和推理的动态不确定因果图(Ⅰ):离散DAG情况

Dynamic Uncertain Causality Graph for Knowledge Representation and Reasoning: Discrete DAG Cases

  • 摘要: 本文提出了一种称为动态不确定因果图(简称DUGG)的新理论模型,用于知识表达和推理,特别是复杂不确定因果关系的简洁表达和高效概率推理。文中指出了现在贝叶斯网络的简洁表达和推理模型只适用于单赋值情况,不适用于多赋值情况。DUGG克服了这些及其它缺陷。DUGG的主要特点是:(1)简洁图形表达单赋值的多赋值的条件概率分布(CPD);(2)能在知识表达不完备情况下精确推理;(3)根据证据化简图形知识库,使问题规模呈指数下降;(4)高效的两步推理算法:(a)逻辑运算以获得给定证据条件下的可能假设,(b)对可能假设进行概率计算;(5)较少依赖参数精度。提供了一个算例来解释DUGG理论。目前该理论正用于中广核集团核电站故障诊断和预测。

     

    Abstract: Developed from the dynamic causality diagram (DCD) model, a new approach for knowledge representation and reasoning named as dynamic uncertain causality graph (DUCG) is presented, which focuses on the compact representation of complex uncertain causalities and efficient probabilistic inference. It is pointed out that the existing models of compact representation and inference in Bayesian Network (BN) is applicable in single-valued cases, but may not be suitable to be applied in multi-valued cases. DUCG overcomes this problem and beyond. The main features of DUCG are: 1) compactly and graphically representing complex conditional probability distributions (CPDs), regardless of whether the cases are single-valued or multi-valued; 2) able to perform exact reasoning in the case of the incomplete knowledge representation; 3) simplifying the graphical knowledge base conditional on observations before other calculations, so that the scale and complexity of problem can be reduced exponentially; 4) the efficient two-step inference algorithm consisting of (a) logic operation to find all possible hypotheses in concern for given observations and (b) the probability calculation for these hypotheses; and 5) much less relying on the parameter accuracy. An alarm system example is provided to illustrate the DUCG methodology.

     

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