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李慧, 吴迪, 李高翔, 柯毅豪, 刘文杰, 郑元欢, 林小拉. 基于大数据的电信用户离网分析和服务质量提升:基础架构、理论模型和实际部署[J]. 计算机科学技术学报, 2015, 30(6): 1201-1214. DOI: 10.1007/s11390-015-1594-2
引用本文: 李慧, 吴迪, 李高翔, 柯毅豪, 刘文杰, 郑元欢, 林小拉. 基于大数据的电信用户离网分析和服务质量提升:基础架构、理论模型和实际部署[J]. 计算机科学技术学报, 2015, 30(6): 1201-1214. DOI: 10.1007/s11390-015-1594-2
Hui Li, Di Wu, Gao-Xiang Li, Yi-Hao Ke, Wen-Jie Liu, Yuan-Huan Zheng, Xiao-La Lin. Enhancing Telco Service Quality with Big Data Enabled Churn Analysis: Infrastructure, Model, and Deployment[J]. Journal of Computer Science and Technology, 2015, 30(6): 1201-1214. DOI: 10.1007/s11390-015-1594-2
Citation: Hui Li, Di Wu, Gao-Xiang Li, Yi-Hao Ke, Wen-Jie Liu, Yuan-Huan Zheng, Xiao-La Lin. Enhancing Telco Service Quality with Big Data Enabled Churn Analysis: Infrastructure, Model, and Deployment[J]. Journal of Computer Science and Technology, 2015, 30(6): 1201-1214. DOI: 10.1007/s11390-015-1594-2

基于大数据的电信用户离网分析和服务质量提升:基础架构、理论模型和实际部署

Enhancing Telco Service Quality with Big Data Enabled Churn Analysis: Infrastructure, Model, and Deployment

  • 摘要: 移动电话的渗透率在发展中国家和发达国家都近乎饱和。由于获取新用户的成本远高于保留现有用户的成本, 在这种情况下, 如何防止用户流失成为目前电信运营商面临的一个重要问题。本文提出了一种基于大数据来解决用户流失问题的框架和方法, 以此提高电信运营商的服务质量。电信运营商作为信息中心, 积累了大量的用户行为、用户服务使用和网络运营的数据。为了实现高效的大数据处理, 本文首先设计实现了一个分布式云基础设施平台, 集成了在线和离线数据处理能力;同时, 本文基于深度数据挖掘技术设计开发了一个完整的客户流失分析模型, 利用用户间的影响力关系来提高预测精度。在验证阶段, 本文使用了真实的电信运营数据集来验证客户流失分析模型的准确性。测试数据集包含超过350万用户的数据和每月超过6000万的电话呼叫详细记录(CDR)。验证结果表明, 本文所提出的方法针对T+1测试模型, 可以实现约90%的精度, 并能准确发现具有较高负影响力的用户。

     

    Abstract: The penetration of mobile phones is nearly saturated in both developing and developed regions. In such a circumstance, how to prevent subscriber churn has become an important issue for today's telecom operators, as the cost to acquire a new subscriber is much higher than that to retain an existing subscriber. In this paper, we propose to leverage the power of big data to mitigate the problem of subscriber churn and enhance the service quality of telecom operators. As the information hub, telecom operators have accumulated a huge volume of valuable data on subscriber behaviors, service usage, and network operations. To enable efficient big data processing, we first build a dedicated distributed cloud infrastructure that integrates both online and offline processing capabilities. Second, we develop a complete churn analysis model based on deep data mining techniques, and utilize inter-subscriber influence to improve prediction accuracy. Finally, we use real datasets obtained from a large telecom operator in China to verify the accuracy of our churn analysis models. The dataset contains the information of over 3.5 million subscribers, which generate over 600 million call detail records (CDRs) per month. The empirical results demonstrate that our proposed method can achieve around 90% accuracy for T + 1 testing periods and identify subscribers with high negative influence successfully.

     

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