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深度模型不确定性校准:方法、挑战与大模型前沿

Uncertainty Calibration in Deep Learning: Methods, Emerging Challenges, and LLM Frontiers

  • 摘要:
    文章摘要图/表: 图1 过置信(左)与欠置信(右)的可靠性示意图。横轴为模型预测置信度,纵轴为实际准确率,虚线对角线代表完美校准。蓝色柱状图为模型输出,红色区域为校准差距。图2 本文综述的四类不确定性校准方法论范式分类:训练时校准(Train-time Calibration)、事后调整(Post-hoc Adjustment)、贝叶斯与集成方法(Bayesian & Ensemble Methods)、混合方法(Hybrid Methods。图3 不确定性校准的四大新兴挑战:分布偏移下的校准、生成模型校准、多模态学习校准、人机协作中的信任校准。
    研究背景 深度神经网络(DNNs)虽在计算机视觉、自然语言处理等领域取得突破性进展,但其“过度自信”(Overconfidence)问题严重阻碍了在高风险场景(自动驾驶、临床诊断、金融风控)的部署。为了提升深度模型预测的可信性,深度模型不确定性校准近年来受到研究人员的广泛关注,本文旨在梳理现有不确定性校准前沿方法,现有挑战以及大模型时代的不确定性校准问题。
    目的 本文旨在构建从传统深度学习到大语言模型的不确定性校准进行系统性综述,具体目标包括:1.对现有深度模型校准方法进行系统分类:首次将校准方法归纳为四大范式(训练时正则化、事后调整、贝叶斯与集成、混合方法),建立统一的技术路线图谱2.挑战性场景分析:覆盖分布偏移、生成模型、多模态学习、人机协作等真实世界复杂场景下的不确定性校准方法3.LLM前沿校准问题:围绕“如何表达-如何评估-如何校准”三大核心问题,梳理现有研究发现并解决了哪些LLM校准问题

     

    Abstract: Despite the remarkable breakthroughs in deep neural networks (DNNs), the deployment of deep models in high-stakes, safety-critical applications remains a significant challenge. For trustworthy machine learning systems, the ability to provide reliable and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates is fundamental. However, DNNs are notoriously overconfident, often yielding miscalibrated probabilities that hinder their integration into real-world decision-making tasks. This survey provides a comprehensive review of the recent advancements in the field of uncertainty calibration in deep learning. It begins by introducing a range of advanced methods recently proposed for calibrating uncertainty in DNNs. To this end, we organize them into four primary paradigms: train-time regularization, post-hoc adjustments, Bayesian and ensemble neural networks, and hybrid approaches. Then, we transition to emerging research challenges that have gained significant attention in recent years, specifically focusing on calibration challenges in out-of-distribution (OOD) scenarios, uncertainty quantification of generative models, calibration in multimodal learning, and human-AI collaboration setting. Finally, we structure our exploration of uncertainty calibration in large language models (LLMs) around three fundamental research questions: how LLMs express uncertainty, how to evaluate their confidence, and how to effectively calibrate LLMs. By reviewing these diverse perspectives, this paper aims to serve as a holistic roadmap for researchers and practitioners aiming to bridge the gap between predictive performance and model trustworthiness.

     

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